I used to judge my days in isolation.
Good day. Bad day. Productive day. Wasted day.
One bad meditation and the whole morning felt ruined. One missed experiment and I was “off track.”
This is the single-point trap. You evaluate yourself based on one data point. And one data point is noise.
Stock traders figured this out decades ago. They don’t buy or sell based on a single candle. They use moving averages: the 50-day, the 200-day. The longer the window, the less the noise matters. The trend is what counts.
I started applying this to my own systems.
Instead of asking “how many experiments did I run today?” I ask: what does my 55-day average look like?
Instead of beating myself up over one rough Monday, I zoom out to 89 days. Am I trending up or trending down?
The answer is different. It’s calmer. It’s more accurate.
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What would your two-month trend tell you that today can’t?
