I left my bag at a terminal. A stranger returned it.
If that person had been someone else, the odds of getting it back were close to zero. The things inside that bag. I don’t want to think about it.
I was telling someone about it. “Nothing happened.”
I hear that a lot. The phone I left behind last week. Nothing happened. The bag this morning. Nothing happened.
You cross the street blindfolded. You don’t get hit by a car. That doesn’t make it a good decision. The outcome was fine. The decision was negative expected value. The risk was real whether or not the loss materialized.
I try to feel the pain of the near-miss as intensely as I would feel the pain of the actual loss.
A poker player who goes all-in with 2-7 offsuit and wins the hand didn’t make a good decision. The table let them get away with it. The next hand won’t be so kind.
A near-miss is a debt that hasn’t come due.
💣
What decision felt fine because it worked out?
