The 3% Mortgage Debate Is Really About Sleep

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“What is essential is invisible to the eye.”

Antoine de Saint-Exupery

My friend paid off a three percent mortgage to sleep better. The same payoff would keep me up at night.

The math looked airtight: borrow at three percent, invest the same money at seven and you keep the four-point spread. Pay the loan off early and you hand that spread back.

On paper, paying it off is a loss.

He paid it off anyway. The monthly payment is gone.

His peace of mind fits nowhere on a spreadsheet.

Money is one type of resource. It’s quantifiable. On the stack of resources, it sits at the bottom: awareness, attention, energy and time all rank above it.

A dollar lost can be earned back. An hour of attention is spent once.

Measure a choice in dollars alone and good choices look like mistakes.

A lottery ticket loses money on average. The ticket costs two dollars and, across all the tickets sold, the prizes pay back less than the players put in. Economists call that negative expected value: play long enough and losing is guaranteed.

Judged in dollars, each ticket you buy is a mistake.

For those same two dollars, the ticket also buys you a week of imagining a different life.

When you’re poor, you get judged for this the hardest. From the outside your short-term choices look like bad math.

Terry Pratchett wrote the rebuttal into a novel. His watchman, Sam Vimes, earns thirty-eight dollars a month.

Good boots cost fifty dollars and last ten years.

Cheap boots cost ten and leak after a season or two, so a man with ten dollars to spare spends a hundred on boots over the decade and still ends up with wet feet.

Buy right or buy twice.

Vimes can see that math and still buys cheap. Fifty dollars in hand has to cover this month before it ever covers the decade.

The spreadsheet sees a bad boot trade. Vimes is weighing the columns it left out.

When money is tight, covering this month beats winning the decade.

The sociologist William Bruce Cameron put it plainly: “Not everything that can be counted counts. Not everything that counts can be counted.”

Before you call a choice irrational, ask what the person making it can see that you can’t.

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Where would you take a loss on paper for a win in energy, attention or sleep?