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“Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought.”
Sun Tzu
Each day I ask one question.
What’s the one thing I can do that makes everything else easier or unnecessary?
Lately I’ve started putting a time estimate next to the answer.
Estimating the work forces a simulation.
To set the number, you picture the steps. You see where to begin, what you need on hand and what finished looks like.
That mental walkthrough is priming.
Hospitals treating a blocked artery run against a deadline of 90 minutes.
Door to balloon, they call it. The clock runs from the front entrance to the moment a catheter opens the artery. In 2005 fewer than half of American patients beat it.
A 90-minute deadline leaves no time to coordinate after arrival.
Hospitals started the sequence before the patient reached the door. A paramedic sent the heart tracing ahead from the ambulance. One call activated the lab.
By 2010 the national median fell from 96 minutes to 64. The share of patients inside the window went from 44% to 91%.
An estimate is a rehearsal. You walk the path before you start the clock.
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Which project would you estimate to start moving?
