I just caught something I’ve been missing.
When your experimentation rate is high enough, the question stops being whether you’ll succeed. It becomes when.
It’s math.
An experiment is a bet with fast feedback. A tweet, a feature, a cold email.
One experiment a month means one outcome carries all the weight. Thirty experiments means each one carries three percent. You have no idea which one will hit. Twenty-eight fail and you still got 2 wins. Those 2 wins compound. They teach you where to point the next 30.
The confidence comes from knowing you’ll run enough experiments to find out what’s right.
You stop clinging to individual outcomes. Each experiment is just a data point. The attachment drops because the volume makes any single experiment less precious. When each experiment is one of 30, the stakes on each individual one approach zero.
Experiments produce their own confidence.
This is why “be more confident” is empty advice. Confidence is a side effect. Change the input (experimentation rate) and it changes on its own.
This is the law of large numbers. Throw enough experiments at anything. It works out.
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How many experiments will you run this week?
