One line from my prediction markets video kept looping in my head. The market price was supposed to reflect what the crowd believed. It was reflecting those beliefs. It was also changing them.
I’d read about something like this years ago. Reflexivity. George Soros, the British pound, 1992. He shorted ten billion in pounds. The bet predicted the pound’s collapse and helped trigger it. He made over a billion dollars in a single day.
Two posts came out of that. The first named Soros and the mechanism. The second covered the people who can move prediction market outcomes. Both stayed in finance.
Belief works the same way in your life. When you act on what you believe, people see the action and react.
- Opportunities open or close.
- Results come in.
- Sometimes the ones you wanted. Sometimes others.
Each result shapes your next move. The loop runs in the direction of your “bet.” Refuse to bet and the loop stays at zero.
Psychologists named one direction learned helplessness: failures, real or imagined, train you to stop trying. The internet named the other manifesting. Same process, opposite directions.
Soros acted on his belief and the pound fell.
When other people refuse you, you have feedback. You can reflect and adjust. When you refuse yourself, you make zero progress.
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Where have you been rejecting yourself before anyone else could?
